Sunday Recap of the Week with Scott Selleck: Friday Changed the Math, Bergen and Hudson Buyer Recap

Watch: Friday Changed the Math. Bergen and Hudson County Buyer Recap

Sunday is the first quiet day to think clearly

Most people read a jobs report and immediately ask whether they should change their plan. That is the wrong first question.

The right first question is narrower. What did Friday actually move, and what did it leave exactly where it was?

Friday moved expectations. It did not move inventory, it did not move condo financing rules, and it did not move what a well-prepared Bergen County house sells for. Those three things run on their own clocks. Let me separate them.

What Friday did not change

Inventory is still the binding constraint in Bergen County. As of this week there are 2,103 active listings countywide, sitting at roughly 1.4 to 1.7 months of supply. A balanced market runs closer to five or six months. A rate move does not create listings. If anything, cheaper money brings more buyers to the same houses.

Well-prepared single family homes are still commanding 105.5% of list price. That number did not soften on Friday, and it is the single most useful sentence in this post for anyone writing an offer on a house in Leonia, Teaneck, or Englewood this week. Sellers who did the preparation work are still getting paid for it.

Condo financing rules tighten Monday regardless. Freddie Mac Bulletin 2026-09 takes effect at the start of the week, and it changes how project eligibility gets evaluated. This matters for condo buyers along the Hudson waterfront in Edgewater, Cliffside Park, West New York, and North Bergen.

Warrantability has not been verified for any project named in this post. Financing eligibility depends on the association’s current reserve, litigation, occupancy, and insurance status, all of which change without notice. Confirm with your lender and request the association’s current questionnaire before relying on any financing assumption.

Insurance still carries the same weight in the monthly math. Nothing on Friday touched that line item. Insurance costs vary by property, elevation, roof age, construction type, and carrier.

Four things that matter, and Friday touched none of them.

What Friday did change

Three things, in order of how much you should weight them.

The September Fed decision now has real optionality. Before Friday, the path looked narrow. It is wider now. That is a change in the range of outcomes, not a decision that has been made.

Rate sheets may reprice. If the market holds where it closed Friday, conventional 30-year pricing has room to move down modestly at the start of the week. Jumbo pricing typically lags conventional pricing on moves like this. Ask your loan officer what your file actually prices at on Monday, because your credit profile, loan size, property type, and lock timeline all change the answer.

Buyer psychology got a data point. For the first time in about three months, there is a legitimate reason to believe the pressure has cracked. That is real, and it is also the piece carrying the most risk.

The payment math, so you can size the move honestly

Here is what a rate change is actually worth on a $700,000 loan amount. Thirty-year fixed, principal and interest only, no taxes, no insurance, no HOA.

Read the spread, not the rows. Every 10 basis points is worth about $46 a month at this loan size. Fifteen basis points is worth about $69. Twenty basis points is worth about $92.

That is the number my buyers have been living with for ninety days. It is meaningful over thirty years. It is not meaningful enough to justify losing a house you want, and it is nowhere near large enough to offset overpaying by $25,000 in a market running at 105.5% of list.

Illustrative only. Your actual payment depends on your loan amount, term, program, taxes, insurance, and any association dues.

Where the risk actually lives this week

The risk is not the rate. The risk is that both sides overread Friday.

Buyers who have been grinding through this market for ninety days will feel like they finally have something. Some of them will use that feeling as permission to stretch, or to wait for a second cut that may not arrive on their timeline.

Sellers may briefly read Friday as evidence that buyer leverage has peaked and that they can reach on price. In a county with 1.4 months of supply, that instinct is understandable. It is also how a well-positioned listing becomes a stale one by late September.

Neither side is right in isolation. One data point does not reverse a trend, and it does not confirm one either.

This is not the moment for either party to abandon a disciplined strategy. It is the moment to run your numbers again with the new inputs and see whether anything in your actual plan changed. For most people reading this, the honest answer is that the payment got slightly better and everything else stayed the same.

That is a good week. It is not a different market.

What I would do Monday

If you are buying: call your loan officer Monday morning and ask what your file prices at, not what the market did. If you are under contract and floating, ask specifically about your lock window. If you are shopping a condo along the waterfront, get the association questionnaire moving this week rather than next.

If you are selling: do not touch your price because of Friday. Look at your showing count and your feedback from the last fourteen days. Those tell you more about your position than any national release does.

If you are planning a Florida move: Friday changed your borrowing cost, not your timeline. The NJ to FL Transition Plan sequencing question is driven by your equity position and your carrying capacity, not by a single rate print.

Discipline is boring right up until it is the reason you won.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Friday jobs report lower mortgage rates in New Jersey?

Friday’s jobs report shifted market expectations for rates rather than setting rates directly. Mortgage pricing is set by individual lenders daily and depends on your credit profile, loan size, property type, and lock timeline. Ask your loan officer what your specific file prices at.

How much does a 15 basis point rate change save on a $700,000 mortgage?

On a $700,000 loan amount at a 30-year fixed term, 15 basis points is worth roughly $69 per month in principal and interest. A 20 basis point move is worth roughly $92 per month. This excludes taxes, insurance, and association dues.

Is now a good time to buy a condo in Fort Lee or Edgewater, NJ?

It depends on the specific building, not the market. Freddie Mac Bulletin 2026-09 changes how condo project eligibility is evaluated effective this week. Warrantability is determined project by project and has not been verified for any building referenced here. Confirm eligibility with your lender before writing an offer.

How tight is Bergen County housing inventory right now?

Bergen County has 2,103 active listings and approximately 1.4 to 1.7 months of supply as of August 2026. A balanced market typically runs five to six months of supply, so Bergen County remains firmly a seller’s market despite any rate movement.

Should Bergen County sellers raise their price after a rate drop?

No. A single rate move does not justify a price increase in a market already absorbing inventory at 105.5% of list price. Showing volume and buyer feedback over the prior two weeks are far better indicators of whether your price is correct.

Resources and Further Reading

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
• Freddie Mac, Seller/Servicer Guide Bulletins: https://guide.freddiemac.com/app/guide/browse/bulletins
• Federal Reserve, FOMC calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendar.htm

Work with Scott

I read this market every week because the difference between a good outcome and an expensive one usually comes down to what you do in the seven days after a headline, not the headline itself. I have been licensed since 1993, with over 500 transactions closed across Bergen and Hudson Counties, and I am an AI Certified Agent recognized by the KREM Institute of Technology.

Not sure whether your current plan still fits the market? The seller quiz takes about 90 seconds and 7 questions: https://form.typeform.com/to/ApzSxxTs

Ready to talk it through? Book a call: https://tidycal.com/slselleck

If you are a buyer, start with active inventory: https://sellecksellsnj.com/home-search/listings
If you are a seller, start with your number: https://sellecksellsnj.com/home-valuation